I generally use price/earnings to get a rough idea about valuation. I am not sure I agree that only price matters. There is a lot between stock price and actual earnings. However, I agree that reporting of earnings can be manipulated.
Read the Hudson Bay Capital article. They argue that tarif…
I generally use price/earnings to get a rough idea about valuation. I am not sure I agree that only price matters. There is a lot between stock price and actual earnings. However, I agree that reporting of earnings can be manipulated.
Read the Hudson Bay Capital article. They argue that tariffs are one way for the US to offset it's imbalance of trade. But this only works if the current trading partners of the US continue to trade with the US. I'm not keen on economic policies dreamed up by some theorist living out his life in a penthouse or the Hamptons. Probably , the bourbon makers in Kentucky are not applauding the economic tariff theorists and their thoughts on how the US debt might be restructured with tariffs:
Tariffs do have their place. Clearly, there are many cases of egregious dumping into the US market, IP theft, market undercutting and market manipulation that should be addressed. In these cases, we not only need tariffs, but better export control. But Trump is using tariffs not as a scalpel to go after these egregious cases. Instead, he's taking a sledge hammer to all of the major trading partners of the US. It's almost as if Trump and his cabinet can't be bothered to do the detailed analysis to understand where tariffs might best be implemented. For Trump, rather than carefully addressing the trade imbalance while upholding the economy, it seems to be more about having the appearance of doing something about the trade imbalance and the debt.
As to the current financial situation, it is my impression that Trump is deliberately trying to tank the market. This may work out for him and his wealthy friends in the short term, but I doubt it will do anything to improve the economy
That Mirhan article was a bit academic. I read it for two reasons: firstly, he and Roubini wrote a fascinating article last year on the way Yellen had been shifting demand to t-bills as a backdoor way to QE by suppressing the longer end of the curve; secondly, as Chariman of the CEA, I assume he has some influence on policy.
I agree about the Crown Royale: I just can't get past the bottle!
Found some articles on Roubini's concerns about Yellen's manipulation of interest rates. In fact, I agree with Roubini.
Regarding Crown Royale, I am not sure who actually drinks it! My Dad, a fourth generation Scots-Canadian, did not drink it. He drank Scotch . . . and sometimes Bourbon.
Thank you for the detailed analysis. I look forward to reading Roubini's analysis in more depth.
"price is supposed to capture everything . . ."
I generally use price/earnings to get a rough idea about valuation. I am not sure I agree that only price matters. There is a lot between stock price and actual earnings. However, I agree that reporting of earnings can be manipulated.
Read the Hudson Bay Capital article. They argue that tariffs are one way for the US to offset it's imbalance of trade. But this only works if the current trading partners of the US continue to trade with the US. I'm not keen on economic policies dreamed up by some theorist living out his life in a penthouse or the Hamptons. Probably , the bourbon makers in Kentucky are not applauding the economic tariff theorists and their thoughts on how the US debt might be restructured with tariffs:
https://www.lpm.org/news/2025-03-05/ky-bourbon-industry-prepares-to-respond-to-trade-war-between-u-s-and-canada
Tariffs do have their place. Clearly, there are many cases of egregious dumping into the US market, IP theft, market undercutting and market manipulation that should be addressed. In these cases, we not only need tariffs, but better export control. But Trump is using tariffs not as a scalpel to go after these egregious cases. Instead, he's taking a sledge hammer to all of the major trading partners of the US. It's almost as if Trump and his cabinet can't be bothered to do the detailed analysis to understand where tariffs might best be implemented. For Trump, rather than carefully addressing the trade imbalance while upholding the economy, it seems to be more about having the appearance of doing something about the trade imbalance and the debt.
As to the current financial situation, it is my impression that Trump is deliberately trying to tank the market. This may work out for him and his wealthy friends in the short term, but I doubt it will do anything to improve the economy
(or the trade imbalance) for the long haul.
That Mirhan article was a bit academic. I read it for two reasons: firstly, he and Roubini wrote a fascinating article last year on the way Yellen had been shifting demand to t-bills as a backdoor way to QE by suppressing the longer end of the curve; secondly, as Chariman of the CEA, I assume he has some influence on policy.
I agree about the Crown Royale: I just can't get past the bottle!
Found some articles on Roubini's concerns about Yellen's manipulation of interest rates. In fact, I agree with Roubini.
Regarding Crown Royale, I am not sure who actually drinks it! My Dad, a fourth generation Scots-Canadian, did not drink it. He drank Scotch . . . and sometimes Bourbon.
Thank you for the detailed analysis. I look forward to reading Roubini's analysis in more depth.