Yes! Zeihan has some strong opinions on China. What he does not seem to give enough weight is that China is/has put itself on a war footing. You will find my first podcast episode very helpful on this. I started to lose confidence in Zeihan’s reliability when he was all in for Trump losing. If you are a geopolitical commentator with high conviction on everything, you had better be right more often than not
I‘ve been away for too long to have a really well founded opinion but to me things started well before energy priced went up and well before the migrant influx starting 2015. there was always a steady- goes tendency towards perfectionism and risk aversion since i can remember, 70s onwards, which i guess can be explained and makes sense given industry structures for step-wise rather than radical innovation. The school system at least of the 80s and I think also 90s was geared towards making everybody the same and not leaving anybody behind. This is the generation of middle-aged people with sufficient experience and access to capital who might start up a business with a reasonable chance of succeeding. I don‘t see an awful lot of people, also younger people where this is seen as a potential career path. Security with a not very large paycheck in the public sector seems to trump the desire to have a vision and a goal to create something, to contribute, and potentially fail. And to work long hours if necessary to make it happen. Leisure is taken for granted more often than not. When people with small paychecks but a qualified education, say a specialized health care professional working in a team under a doctor in a doctor‘s practice, is offered the chance of being paid to do a course to learn more skills but needs to give up say 2 weekends to do it, there is a tendency to refuse because many seem to only look at the weekend immediately in front of them and not the wider picture. The differential between the paycheck from a job like that, of which there are many, and social security seems to small to convince people to work and put in effort, I have heard from many people from different walks of life. Social security is taken for granted and not seen as a function of national income which has to be earnt first in some way. To to me based on what I have heard, it starts not with energy prices or migrants but with people‘s attitude and mindset towards wanting to accomplish something.
Plus CN had a can do attitude at least when I was there last, before Corona. I read and hear this changed somewhat but have trouble imagining you can put the entrepreneurial gini back in the bottle entirely
Peter Zeihan argued that Donald Trump would not win the 2024 general election due to several key factors:
1. Fractured Republican Coalition: Trump introduced unprecedented internal conflicts within the Republican Party, breaking its historical unity. This division weakened the party’s ability to mobilize its smaller voter base effectively compared to Democrats.
2. Alienation of Independent Voters: Zeihan emphasized that independent voters, crucial in deciding elections, had turned strongly against Trump due to his rhetoric and actions. He cited a significant anti-Trump swing among independents as seen in prior elections, making a Republican victory unlikely.
3. Structural Electoral Challenges: The U.S. electoral system favors cohesive “big-tent” parties. With the Republican coalition fractured and independents leaning Democratic, the numbers simply didn’t favor Trump.
4. Trump’s Polarizing Leadership: Zeihan highlighted that Trump’s leadership style alienated key factions within the Republican base, such as business conservatives, while also failing to attract new voters.
These dynamics led Zeihan to predict a substantial electoral defeat for Trump in 2024.
Thank you! All sound reasonable enough. I guess you guys have other things to occupy yr mind, but what’s obsessing me and many others here are the German elections end if Feb. I have no idea how that’ll go and there is not a single candidate that i think is actually up to the job and i have no idea what kind of government we’ll end up with. And whatever government it will be will be important to wider Europe. Meanwhile property tax has quadrupled in the space of a year.
It is sad and remarkable to see how quickly Germany is de-industrializing due to lack of cheap energy. It has become a net importer. You see the effects of this in Norway. Their coalition just fell apart because of tensions over energy prices. Norway is energy rich but Europe has been sucking in energy under existing agreements with Norway. That has driven up the costs in Norway - which is making people angry. That is what I am seeing from here. You are closer, so I am interested to hear your perspective on this.
There is a lot to say on that. As you know, I am repositioning all my investments. I am not sure that I trust any value stocks in this environment. I certainly don’t trust the Mag 7 anymore. It’s probably going to be more 20% cash/ST, 55% precious metals and 25% commodities. No more bitcoin. I think we are heading into stormy weather where equities and bonds are going to take a beating
Like the Rick Rule video insert, how he said/reasoned around min 13 when he talks about $PPP was interesting, I’ll watch the whole thing tomorrow
Any more intel on the 30-30 etc asset allocation? Why, based on what data, etc?
Yes! Zeihan has some strong opinions on China. What he does not seem to give enough weight is that China is/has put itself on a war footing. You will find my first podcast episode very helpful on this. I started to lose confidence in Zeihan’s reliability when he was all in for Trump losing. If you are a geopolitical commentator with high conviction on everything, you had better be right more often than not
I‘ve been away for too long to have a really well founded opinion but to me things started well before energy priced went up and well before the migrant influx starting 2015. there was always a steady- goes tendency towards perfectionism and risk aversion since i can remember, 70s onwards, which i guess can be explained and makes sense given industry structures for step-wise rather than radical innovation. The school system at least of the 80s and I think also 90s was geared towards making everybody the same and not leaving anybody behind. This is the generation of middle-aged people with sufficient experience and access to capital who might start up a business with a reasonable chance of succeeding. I don‘t see an awful lot of people, also younger people where this is seen as a potential career path. Security with a not very large paycheck in the public sector seems to trump the desire to have a vision and a goal to create something, to contribute, and potentially fail. And to work long hours if necessary to make it happen. Leisure is taken for granted more often than not. When people with small paychecks but a qualified education, say a specialized health care professional working in a team under a doctor in a doctor‘s practice, is offered the chance of being paid to do a course to learn more skills but needs to give up say 2 weekends to do it, there is a tendency to refuse because many seem to only look at the weekend immediately in front of them and not the wider picture. The differential between the paycheck from a job like that, of which there are many, and social security seems to small to convince people to work and put in effort, I have heard from many people from different walks of life. Social security is taken for granted and not seen as a function of national income which has to be earnt first in some way. To to me based on what I have heard, it starts not with energy prices or migrants but with people‘s attitude and mindset towards wanting to accomplish something.
Plus CN had a can do attitude at least when I was there last, before Corona. I read and hear this changed somewhat but have trouble imagining you can put the entrepreneurial gini back in the bottle entirely
Oh, I’ll have to go back to find those Zeihan podcasts where he provided his reasoning for that
Here you go:
Peter Zeihan argued that Donald Trump would not win the 2024 general election due to several key factors:
1. Fractured Republican Coalition: Trump introduced unprecedented internal conflicts within the Republican Party, breaking its historical unity. This division weakened the party’s ability to mobilize its smaller voter base effectively compared to Democrats.
2. Alienation of Independent Voters: Zeihan emphasized that independent voters, crucial in deciding elections, had turned strongly against Trump due to his rhetoric and actions. He cited a significant anti-Trump swing among independents as seen in prior elections, making a Republican victory unlikely.
3. Structural Electoral Challenges: The U.S. electoral system favors cohesive “big-tent” parties. With the Republican coalition fractured and independents leaning Democratic, the numbers simply didn’t favor Trump.
4. Trump’s Polarizing Leadership: Zeihan highlighted that Trump’s leadership style alienated key factions within the Republican base, such as business conservatives, while also failing to attract new voters.
These dynamics led Zeihan to predict a substantial electoral defeat for Trump in 2024.
Thank you! All sound reasonable enough. I guess you guys have other things to occupy yr mind, but what’s obsessing me and many others here are the German elections end if Feb. I have no idea how that’ll go and there is not a single candidate that i think is actually up to the job and i have no idea what kind of government we’ll end up with. And whatever government it will be will be important to wider Europe. Meanwhile property tax has quadrupled in the space of a year.
It is sad and remarkable to see how quickly Germany is de-industrializing due to lack of cheap energy. It has become a net importer. You see the effects of this in Norway. Their coalition just fell apart because of tensions over energy prices. Norway is energy rich but Europe has been sucking in energy under existing agreements with Norway. That has driven up the costs in Norway - which is making people angry. That is what I am seeing from here. You are closer, so I am interested to hear your perspective on this.
I replied but not sure its displaying it properly where it belongs, might have slipped up towards beginning of thread?
There is a lot to say on that. As you know, I am repositioning all my investments. I am not sure that I trust any value stocks in this environment. I certainly don’t trust the Mag 7 anymore. It’s probably going to be more 20% cash/ST, 55% precious metals and 25% commodities. No more bitcoin. I think we are heading into stormy weather where equities and bonds are going to take a beating
I am reading this with Zeihan in the back of my mind, I think yr China comment regarding Zeihan was prescient given DeepSeek ;-)
Genie 🧞♀️ i mean
Podcast music sounds cool 😎
Thanks, Elisabeth - the first episode is now in editing for all podcast platforms and the YouTube channel
I will announce the guest when all the promo material is complete
Looking forward to it 🚀